Looking ahead to 2023: Moderate optimism, but optimism in any case

November’s macroeconomic figures open the door to a less dark scenario than could be expected just a few months ago.
At the very least, this is indicated by a brief report recently published by the “ Cercle d’Economia” and Caixabank Research.

There are several indicators that invite a certain optimism:

– The inflation rate is beginning to moderate.
– Rates will continue to rise, but probably less than expected.
– China seems to be beginning to wake up from lethargy
– The main indicators of the Spanish economy improve
– The labour market remains dynamic, and jobs continue to be created

This, added to a society in general (and here I refer to financial institutions, business fabric, and citizenship) better prepared to weather the crisis than at other times in recent history, pushes us to think about a short-term time horizon better than expected.

In other words, we probably won’t even enter a technical recession. And if so, it will be a short recession and the recovery will be rapid. Of course, if nothing changes on the world chessboard, which we already know is impossible to predict.

What does it mean for companies in terms of talent?

Adjustments will likely be smaller than all predictions suggested. And therefore, there will still be career opportunities after a particularly dynamic 2022 labour market.

In this type of environment, opportunities are generated, and favorable environments are generated to consider changes. Of course, calibrating the risks. And at this point I allow myself to refer to an article I wrote about it in August 2022.

In short, we know that in every crisis there is also a mental component. After a particularly difficult few years (pandemic, increase in raw materials and skyrocketing logistics costs, war in Ukraine, etc.) it can be easy to tend towards a certain pessimism. But I think it is time tocling to some indicators that invite a certain optimism and look at 2023 with enthusiasm.

And if along the way, things go wrong, we will manage them and move forward, as always.

Álvaro Cárcel, Executive Search Director.